After the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer has raised doubts over whether the United States will see lasting gains from the move, warning that any short-term advantage could fade once Donald Trump leaves office in 2029.
In an interview with India Today TV, Bremmer pointed out that unlike countries such as India, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi has remained in power for over a decade due to sustained popular support, the US system places clear limits on how long a president can shape policy.
Bremmer said Trump’s successor could easily reverse many of his decisions, much like Trump himself did after taking over from his predecessor. He noted that frequent leadership changes in the US — typically every four years — often disrupt long-term strategies, unlike in China, Russia or India, where political continuity allows policies time to deliver results.
“The next president can undo a lot of what Trump does,” Bremmer said. “This isn’t Xi Jinping. It’s not even Modi, who has governed India for more than 10 years and remains popular in a democratic system. This is Trump, who is quite unpopular, 80 years old, and will be out in three years.”
According to Bremmer, whether the US benefits in the long run will depend on several factors, including global oil prices, political stability in Venezuela and how Washington approaches the post-Trump period. He noted that Venezuela is currently producing around 800,000 barrels of oil a day, far below its earlier output of nearly 3 million barrels.
“To raise production, you need political stability,” he said. “You also need an economic environment that oil companies trust. They have to believe the investment will be profitable, and right now energy prices are relatively low.”
Bremmer also stressed that oil companies operate on investment timelines that extend far beyond a single US presidency. He dismissed claims that American firms would simply extract all of Venezuela’s oil as overstated.
“There has to be confidence that the political system Trump is backing will still be in place after he leaves office in 2029,” he said. “That’s why I think claims that Americans are going to take all the oil are exaggerated. I wouldn’t take those promises to the bank.”