Following the US capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer has expressed doubts over whether the move will deliver lasting gains for Washington, warning that any short-term advantage could fade once Donald Trump leaves office in 2029.
Speaking to India Today TV, Bremmer said the limited tenure of US presidents often undermines long-term foreign policy outcomes. He contrasted the US system with countries like India, China and Russia, where leadership continuity allows policies to mature over time.
“Unlike leaders such as Xi Jinping or even Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has been in power for over a decade and enjoys strong public support, Trump’s time in office is fixed,” Bremmer said. “The next president can undo much of what Trump does, just as Trump reversed many decisions of his predecessor.”
Bremmer pointed out that frequent leadership changes in the US create policy discontinuity, particularly in areas that require sustained engagement. “This is not Xi Jinping. It’s not even Modi. This is Trump, who is unpopular, 80 years old, and will be out of office in three years,” he said.
According to Bremmer, whether the US ultimately benefits from Venezuela’s vast oil reserves will depend on multiple factors, including global oil prices, political stability in Caracas and the policy direction after Trump’s presidency.
He noted that Venezuela’s oil production currently stands at around 800,000 barrels per day, far below its earlier output of nearly three million barrels a day. “To increase production, you need political stability and an economic environment that oil companies trust,” Bremmer said, adding that low global energy prices also affect investment decisions.
Bremmer further stressed that oil companies operate on long investment cycles that often extend beyond the term of a single US president. “Companies need confidence that the political system being backed today will still be in place after Trump leaves office in 2029,” he said.
Without long-term stability and policy continuity, Bremmer argued, the strategic gains from Venezuela’s oil wealth may remain uncertain.