The US operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro may give President Donald Trump a short-term political lift, but it risks damaging America’s global standing in the longer run, geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer has warned.
Speaking to India Today TV, Bremmer said the January 3 operation in Caracas fits into what he describes as a “G-Zero world” — an era marked by the absence of clear global leadership and the United States stepping away from the international order it once helped build.
“This is the United States changing the rules of the road,” Bremmer said, arguing that Washington is increasingly prioritising raw power over shared norms, alliances and institutions. He added that the Venezuela operation is unlikely to be an isolated case.
Bremmer, president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, stressed that Trump is not the origin of this shift but rather “a symptom” and an “accelerant” of trends that have been unfolding for over a decade. He said he had warned as early as 2012 that the world was moving away from G7 or G20-style coordination towards a leadership vacuum.
Power over rules
While drawing a distinction between the Venezuela operation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Bremmer said the US action still raises uncomfortable questions about Washington’s commitment to a rules-based global order. He pointed out that the operation was neither debated in Congress nor discussed in advance with allies, and that there has been significant opposition both within and outside the US.
Despite this, global reaction has been relatively muted. Countries traditionally aligned with Venezuela, including Russia, China and Iran, have not taken concrete steps in response. European allies, though uneasy about the broader direction of US foreign policy under Trump, have largely avoided open confrontation.
“All of this is about power,” Bremmer said, pointing to America’s unmatched ability — and willingness — to project military force.
Short-term gain, long-term cost
Bremmer described the episode as “a short-term tactical win” for Trump that could come at a significant long-term cost. He argued that the United States benefits more than most countries from stable rules, alliances and institutions, all of which are weakened when Washington itself sidelines them.
“The US is undoing an order that has worked in its own favour,” he said, warning that this could seriously erode America’s role and credibility on the world stage.
At the same time, Bremmer cautioned against assuming that US actions alone will prompt Russia or China to take aggressive steps elsewhere. He said both countries act primarily on their own assessments of power, opportunity and risk, rather than on moral justification drawn from US behaviour.
‘Regime roulette’
Asked about Trump’s remark that the US would “run Venezuela,” Bremmer said such claims were being overstated. “Trump says a lot of things,” he noted, adding that there is no concrete plan for US governance in the country.
“I call it regime roulette,” he said. “You spin the wheel and see what comes next, and very often it looks a lot like what came before.”
According to Bremmer, Washington’s core message is that any future leadership in Venezuela will be expected to align with US interests — including cutting ties with Russia and Iran and offering preferential access to oil and mineral resources — or face pressure. However, he described this approach as “a belief without a plan.”
With Venezuela currently producing around 800,000 barrels of oil a day, far below its earlier output, Bremmer said large-scale investment would require sustained political stability. Given Trump’s limited remaining time in office, he warned that energy companies may remain cautious.
“I wouldn’t rush to the bank on promises of that oil,” he said.