Saudi Arabia-led coalition forces on Tuesday carried out airstrikes on a port city in Yemen—but the target was neither the Iran-backed Houthis nor frontline rebel positions. Instead, Riyadh said the strikes hit shipments of weapons and armoured vehicles that it alleged were sent by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to separatist forces operating in southern Yemen.
The bombing of the Yemeni port city of Mukalla was followed by an unusually blunt warning to Abu Dhabi. Saudi Arabia publicly issued an ultimatum, demanding that UAE forces withdraw from Yemen within 24 hours.
The strikes came days after Riyadh accused the UAE of supplying arms to the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a powerful separatist group seeking an independent South Yemen. Saudi officials alleged that the shipments arrived aboard vessels that sailed from the UAE’s Fujairah port with their tracking systems switched off before docking in Yemen without authorisation. Saudi jets struck the port shortly after civilians were asked to evacuate the area.
Saudi Arabia reportedly views the arming of the STC as a red line for its national security, according to Reuters. Late Tuesday, the UAE’s Foreign Ministry rejected the allegations, denying any role in undermining Saudi security.
“The UAE categorically rejects any attempt to implicate it in tensions between Yemeni parties,” the statement said, adding that Abu Dhabi remains fully committed to Saudi Arabia’s security and sovereignty. The ministry further claimed that the shipment in question did not contain weapons and that the vehicles were intended for UAE forces operating in Yemen, not for any Yemeni faction.
Regional markets reacted nervously to the escalation, with major Gulf stock indices trading lower amid fears of widening tensions, Reuters reported.
So why did Saudi Arabia mark its red line with bombs against a neighbour it often refers to as a “brother”? And does the episode have wider regional implications, including a possible Israel angle?
The power play in Yemen
Yemen’s long-running war has been shaped by overlapping alliances, competing regional interests and shifting endgames. Saudi Arabia leads the coalition backing Yemen’s internationally recognised government, primarily to prevent the Houthis—seen as an Iranian proxy—from consolidating power along its southern border.
The UAE joined the Saudi-led coalition in 2015 but gradually pursued a parallel strategy, building influence in southern Yemen through local militias that eventually coalesced into the STC. That divergence now lies at the heart of the growing Saudi-UAE rift.
Riyadh maintains that it seeks a unified Yemen governed by a friendly central authority. Abu Dhabi, meanwhile, has backed southern forces that control strategic ports and coastlines, viewing them as a counterweight to Islamist groups and a means to secure key maritime routes.
Formed in 2017, the UAE-backed STC controls large parts of Aden and surrounding southern governorates. While it opposes the Houthis, it also rivals Yemen’s internationally recognised government, complicating the anti-Houthi coalition.
For Saudi Arabia, the STC’s expanding territorial control—emboldened by Emirati backing—is destabilising. Any fragmentation of anti-Houthi forces risks strengthening Iran’s hand and undermining prospects for a political settlement.
Why Mukalla mattered
Mukalla is not just another Yemeni port. Located in the southern Hadramout region along the Arabian Sea, it sits close to the Gulf of Aden—one of the world’s most critical shipping routes for oil and gas exports.
Saudi Arabia considers the area strategically sensitive, given its proximity to its southern flank and its vulnerability to separatist and Iranian influence. By striking Mukalla, Riyadh signalled that UAE-linked activity had crossed from tolerable friction into a direct security threat.
Saudi officials described the operation as limited and defensive, insisting civilians were not targeted. No immediate casualties were reported.
The Mukalla strike followed Saudi airstrikes on STC positions on December 26, according to the Associated Press. Analysts said those earlier attacks were intended as a warning to the STC to halt its territorial advances and withdraw from parts of Hadramout and Mahra, where it had displaced Saudi-backed National Shield Forces.
Soon after, Yemen’s Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council cancelled defence arrangements with the UAE and endorsed calls for a rapid Emirati withdrawal. Airspace restrictions and blockades followed.
A strain on Gulf ties
Public confrontations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have historically been rare. The two Gulf powers coordinated closely on issues ranging from Yemen to oil markets and the Arab Spring.
But since 2020, their paths have increasingly diverged. The UAE normalised ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords, while Saudi Arabia stayed out. Economic rivalry intensified as Riyadh sought to draw investment and trade away from Dubai. Disagreements spilled into OPEC and later surfaced in other regional conflicts, including Sudan.
That context makes the Mukalla bombing significant. It laid bare a strategic rift that had been building quietly for years.
Political analyst Khaled Batarfi told Al Jazeera that the Saudi strikes marked a clear escalation. He said any forces operating outside Yemen’s Presidential Council—regardless of who backs them—would face consequences.
Batarfi described the 24-hour ultimatum as a test of intent rather than a realistic timeline for withdrawal, warning that failure to comply could lead to further escalation. Still, he said communication channels between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi remain open, with quiet efforts underway to defuse tensions.
The UAE’s carefully worded response, conciliatory in tone compared to Saudi Arabia’s blunt warning, suggests Abu Dhabi may be inclined towards de-escalation.
Is there an Israel angle?
The escalation also comes amid shifting regional dynamics. On December 26, Israel officially recognised the Republic of Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia located across the Red Sea—an area of growing strategic interest amid Houthi attacks on shipping.
Israeli analyst Yoel Guzansky of the Institute for National Security Studies has argued that southern Yemen is no longer a theoretical project but a political reality, with the UAE-backed STC effectively creating a separate governing entity.
According to Guzansky, Yemen is drifting toward a de facto split between a northern Houthi-controlled state backed by Iran and a southern entity aligned with the UAE. While this undermines Saudi Arabia’s vision of a unified Yemen, it could offer Israel both risks and opportunities, particularly in securing maritime routes near the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
For Yemenis, however, the geopolitical manoeuvring offers little relief. The latest escalation adds yet another layer to a conflict that has already devastated the country and its people over the past decade.