Pakistan, which was recently forced to privatise its national carrier Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) under IMF pressure, may not need the lender’s support within six months—at least according to Defence Minister Khawaja Asif. The minister’s claim, based on what he described as a surge in defence export orders after the May 2025 India-Pakistan military clash, has raised eyebrows given Pakistan’s fragile economic reality and its limited role in manufacturing the very fighter jets he cited.
Speaking to Karachi-based Geo TV on Tuesday, Asif said Pakistan had witnessed a sharp increase in global interest in its military hardware following the four-day conflict with India. He suggested that the country’s fighter aircraft had “proved their capability,” leading to a wave of defence orders strong enough to potentially free Islamabad from IMF dependence.
“Our aircraft were tested in real combat. We are getting so many orders that Pakistan may not need IMF assistance in six months,” Asif claimed.
The assertion comes despite Pakistan’s continued reliance on IMF bailouts. In 2023, the IMF approved a $7 billion assistance package—the country’s 23rd programme—with strict conditions, including fiscal reforms and asset sales. The privatisation of PIA was part of that agreement. An initial $3 billion tranche helped Pakistan avert a sovereign default, while another $1 billion was released in May 2025, even as hostilities with India were underway.
Jet sales and Saudi talks
Adding to the narrative, a retired Pakistani Air Marshal told Reuters that Islamabad was in discussions with six countries, including Saudi Arabia, to export defence equipment. A separate Reuters report on January 8, quoting two unnamed sources, said Pakistan was negotiating with Riyadh to convert around $2 billion in Saudi loans into a deal for JF-17 fighter jets.
According to one source, the total package could be worth $4 billion, with an additional $2 billion earmarked for defence equipment. Defence analyst and retired Air Marshal Amir Masood also told Reuters that Pakistan was either negotiating or had finalised export deals involving JF-17 jets and related systems with several countries.
Saudi Arabia’s role is particularly significant. Riyadh has previously extended $6 billion in financial support to Pakistan and deferred repayments when Islamabad struggled to meet its obligations.
Reality check on JF-17 exports
However, experts have questioned Asif’s optimism. Political scientist and defence analyst Ayesha Siddiqa pointed out that Pakistan’s actual share in the JF-17 programme is limited.
“Pakistan manufactures only a fraction of the aircraft,” she said, noting that the country accounts for roughly 35–40% of the airframe. “That doesn’t generate enough revenue to rescue Pakistan from the IMF.”
While JF-17 and J-10 fighter jets have found buyers in a few countries such as Azerbaijan and Libya—and Bangladesh has reportedly held talks—the financial gains are shared with China, the principal designer and manufacturer of the aircraft. Key components are sourced from multiple countries, including Russia, Italy, Turkey and the UK. The JF-17, for instance, uses the Russian-made Klimov RD-93 engine.
Given this structure, Pakistan earns only a fraction of the sale price per aircraft. Against a debt burden nearing $300 billion, even optimistic defence export figures barely move the needle.
Questionable combat claims
Asif’s argument also hinges on the claimed performance of Pakistani jets during the May 2025 conflict with India. Those claims have been widely disputed. While Pakistan’s leadership repeatedly asserted that several Indian aircraft were shot down during India’s Operation Sindoor, independent assessments suggest otherwise.
The Pakistan Air Force is believed to have lost between four and nine aircraft, including jets destroyed on the ground at bases such as Bholari and Nur Khan in Indian missile strikes. Nearly 20% of PAF infrastructure across 11 airbases reportedly suffered damage, including runways, hangars, radar systems and communication networks. Losses also reportedly included a Saab 2000 AWACS aircraft and several radar installations, significantly degrading Pakistan’s air defence capability.
These setbacks, coupled with personnel casualties, are widely seen as factors that pushed Islamabad to seek a ceasefire.
Economy still on life support
The broader economic picture further weakens Asif’s claims. Pakistan’s total public debt and liabilities stand at roughly $280–300 billion. External debt alone is estimated at around PKR 26 trillion, according to official data. Debt servicing consumed more than half of federal revenues in FY25, according to a Dawn report published in September.
In a November interview with the Inqalaab Voice YouTube channel, economist Qaiser Bengali bluntly said Pakistan had “already defaulted” in practical terms. “When a country survives by taking new loans to repay old ones, that is a default,” he said, describing the economy as being “on a ventilator of debt.”
He warned that without continued rollovers or fresh financing from lenders such as China and Saudi Arabia, the economy would collapse.
Only weeks ago, Pakistan sold PIA for PKR 13,500 crore under IMF pressure—an episode that starkly contrasts with the defence minister’s claim of jets “selling like hot cakes.”
Against this backdrop, Khawaja Asif’s suggestion that Pakistan could walk away from IMF support within six months appears less like an economic forecast and more like wishful thinking.