Fresh from his military operation in Venezuela, US President Donald Trump has set his sights on Greenland — by any means necessary. Denmark, which governs the Arctic island and is only 0.44% the size of the US, still has a Cold War-era directive from 1952 for its troops: shoot first, ask questions later. But despite the rhetoric, experts say Denmark would have little chance of stopping a US military move similar to what Trump executed in Venezuela.
The reality is stark. A little-known 1951 Cold War agreement gives the US broad military access to Greenland, allowing it to establish bases with the consent of Denmark and Greenland. Currently, more than 100 US personnel are stationed at the Pituffik base. Under the treaty, the US could surge forces there if it chose to seize the island.
Can Denmark defend Greenland?
Denmark has taken Trump’s remarks seriously. The government, led by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, has reminded that its troops are under standing orders to “shoot first and ask questions later” if Greenland is attacked. The Danish Defence Minister has also pledged $13.8 billion to strengthen Greenland’s defences.
But Denmark’s military resources are limited. According to Global Firepower rankings, the US ranks first in military strength, while Denmark comes in at 45th. The US has around 1.3 million active personnel, compared to roughly 2.1 million for the rest of NATO combined. Denmark has the smallest military within NATO, with about 17,300 personnel — fewer than India’s Coast Guard alone.
The Danish Army numbers around 8,000, smaller than a single Indian Army infantry division. Its navy has roughly 3,500 personnel and nine frigates but no submarines. Denmark’s air force operates about 118 aircraft with 3,000 personnel, including 26 older F-16s and 21 F-35 jets — ironically, many of which are supplied by the US.
Logistical challenges would also hamper Denmark’s defence. Greenland lies nearly 3,000 km from mainland Denmark, making rapid troop deployment difficult.
What could happen in a conflict?
Experts say a hypothetical US invasion would likely be over in a day. Jamie Shea, formerly of NATO’s international staff, told CNBC, “I would not see a military response from NATO as the US would be able to deal quickly with whatever limited forces the Europeans could send.”
US air and amphibious power would be decisive. F-35 and F/A-18 jets from a single Nimitz-class aircraft carrier could secure air dominance within hours. A Wasp-class amphibious assault ship, capable of carrying around 1,700 troops, could deploy forces using landing craft and MV-22B Osprey aircraft to rapidly seize Nuuk, Greenland’s capital.
While purely theoretical, the scenario highlights Greenland’s strategic vulnerability and Denmark’s limited defence options.
Why Trump wants Greenland
Trump has repeatedly called Greenland “vital for national security” and expressed a desire to acquire it, either through purchase or military action. He has claimed, without evidence, that Russian and Chinese ships are “covering” the Arctic, using it to justify his interest in the island.
Experts say Greenland’s appeal goes beyond rhetoric. Its location between Europe and North America is crucial for US ballistic missile defence and monitoring of Arctic shipping lanes. Additionally, Greenland’s rich deposits of critical minerals make it strategically valuable as the US seeks to reduce reliance on Chinese imports.
With a US President seemingly willing to upend global norms, Denmark and Greenland face growing pressure to stay alert as tensions rise.