Ajit Doval: Pakistan Uses Terrorism as a Ready Excuse for Its Internal Instability

A senior Pakistani nuclear weapons adviser has accused India of supporting militant organisations, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), alleging that New Delhi is using terrorism to destabilise Pakistan.

Retired Lieutenant General Mazhar Jamil, an adviser to Pakistan’s National Command Authority (NCA), made the allegations while addressing a strategic security workshop in London on October 13. He accused India of “exporting terrorism as an instrument of policy” and claimed that its actions reflected the publicly discussed doctrine associated with India’s National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval.

The remarks were delivered at a Track 1.5 workshop on nuclear deterrence and strategic stability in South Asia, organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Jamil Raises Historical Allegations Against India

During his keynote address, Jamil cited India’s support for the Mukti Bahini during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, its relationship with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) during the 1980s, and the presence of Indian consulates near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border as purported evidence of alleged Indian support for militant groups.

He also accused India of escalating tensions during Operation Sindoor, claiming that the confrontation brought South Asia close to a nuclear crisis. Jamil argued that Pakistan’s restraint prevented further escalation.

However, several of his assertions, particularly those concerning India’s alleged support for terrorism and the nuclear capabilities of Indian missiles, remain disputed or require independent verification.

BrahMos Missile Claims Disputed

Jamil alleged that India had used dual-capable BrahMos missiles during Operation Sindoor, suggesting that the weapons could carry either conventional or nuclear warheads.

The claim that the BrahMos is part of India’s nuclear weapons arsenal is disputed. The missile is publicly known as a conventional strike weapon and is not identified as part of India’s Strategic Forces Command arsenal.

Jamil also referred to the accidental launch of an Indian Air Force BrahMos missile in March 2022, which landed in Pakistan’s Punjab province. He characterised the incident as an intentional attack, although India acknowledged the launch as an accident.

Questions Over India’s Nuclear Doctrine

Jamil further argued that India’s declared No First Use (NFU) policy should not be taken at face value. India’s draft nuclear doctrine, released in 1999, emphasised credible minimum deterrence and retaliation in response to a nuclear attack.

He cited discussions by former National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon about possible nuclear response scenarios, suggesting that India’s policy could accommodate a first-strike option under certain circumstances.

However, the distinction between a nuclear first strike and a nuclear response intended to eliminate an adversary’s remaining nuclear capabilities is significant. Menon’s analysis of possible scenarios does not, by itself, establish a formal change in India’s declared nuclear doctrine.

Jamil also expressed concern about India’s developing sea-based nuclear deterrent, arguing that submarine-launched ballistic missiles and deterrence patrols could increase the risk of miscalculation between the two countries.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Command Structure

Jamil previously served as Director-General of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division between 2015 and 2017, an organisation responsible for key aspects of the country’s nuclear weapons infrastructure.

During the workshop, he described the Makkah Joint Defence Pact involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye as defensive in nature. He also avoided giving a definitive answer on whether Pakistan’s partners would provide military assistance in the event of a conflict with India.

Pakistan’s nuclear command arrangements have also attracted attention following changes to its strategic command structure and the role of its military leadership in overseeing nuclear assets.

Nuclear Stability Remains a Regional Concern

The allegations underline continuing tensions between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbours with a long history of military confrontation and competing security narratives.

While Pakistan has accused India of supporting militant organisations, India has repeatedly raised concerns about cross-border terrorism originating from Pakistani territory. Claims made by officials from either country require careful scrutiny and independent corroboration.

The debate over nuclear deterrence, missile capabilities and military doctrine remains central to regional security discussions, particularly as both countries seek to strengthen their strategic capabilities while managing the risk of escalation.

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